NVAMediumJEE 2023Probability Distributions

JEE Mathematics 2023 Question with Solution

A fair n>1n > 1 faces die is rolled repeatedly until a number less than nn appears. If the mean of the number of tosses required is n9\frac{n}{9}, then nn is equal to:

Answer

Correct answer:10

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: A fair nn faces die is rolled until a number less than nn appears.

Find: The value of nn if the mean number of tosses is n9\frac{n}{9}.

Let the first success be getting a number less than nn. Then

P(success)=n1n,P(failure)=1nP(\text{success}) = \frac{n-1}{n}, \qquad P(\text{failure}) = \frac{1}{n}

So the mean is written as

1n1n+21nn1n+3(1n)2(n1n)+1 \cdot \frac{n-1}{n} + 2 \cdot \frac{1}{n} \cdot \frac{n-1}{n} + 3 \cdot \left( \frac{1}{n} \right)^2 \cdot \left( \frac{n-1}{n} \right) + \dots

Hence,

n9=n1n(1+21n+3(1n)2+)\frac{n}{9} = \frac{n-1}{n} \left( 1 + 2 \cdot \frac{1}{n} + 3 \cdot \left( \frac{1}{n} \right)^2 + \dots \right)

Using

1+2r+3r2+=1(1r)21 + 2r + 3r^2 + \dots = \frac{1}{(1-r)^2}

with r=1nr = \frac{1}{n},

n9=n1n(11n)2\frac{n}{9} = \frac{n-1}{n} \cdot \left( 1 - \frac{1}{n} \right)^{-2}

Now,

n9=n1nn2(n1)2\frac{n}{9} = \frac{n-1}{n} \cdot \frac{n^2}{(n-1)^2}

So,

n9=nn1\frac{n}{9} = \frac{n}{n-1}

Therefore,

n1=9n-1 = 9

which gives

n=10n = 10

Therefore, the value of nn is 1010.

Expectation Series Expansion

Given: Success occurs when the die shows any of 1,2,3,,n11,2,3,\dots,n-1.

Find: nn from the given mean n9\frac{n}{9}.

The probability that the process stops on the first toss is

n1n\frac{n-1}{n}

The probability that it stops on the second toss is

1nn1n\frac{1}{n} \cdot \frac{n-1}{n}

The probability that it stops on the third toss is

(1n)2n1n\left( \frac{1}{n} \right)^2 \cdot \frac{n-1}{n}

Thus the expectation becomes

E(X)=k=1k(1n)k1n1nE(X) = \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k \left( \frac{1}{n} \right)^{k-1} \frac{n-1}{n}

This matches the expanded series used above. Evaluating it gives

E(X)=n1n1(11n)2=nn1E(X) = \frac{n-1}{n} \cdot \frac{1}{\left(1-\frac{1}{n}\right)^2} = \frac{n}{n-1}

Since this is equal to n9\frac{n}{9},

n9=nn1\frac{n}{9} = \frac{n}{n-1}

Cancelling n0n \neq 0,

19=1n1\frac{1}{9} = \frac{1}{n-1}

Hence,

n1=9n=10n-1 = 9 \Rightarrow n = 10

So the required numerical value is 1010.

Common mistakes

  • Treating the stopping probability as 1n\frac{1}{n} is incorrect because the process stops when a number less than nn appears, which has probability n1n\frac{n-1}{n}. Use 1n\frac{1}{n} only for the failure event of getting exactly nn.

  • Using the geometric-series formula 11r\frac{1}{1-r} instead of the weighted series formula is wrong. The series here is 1+2r+3r2+1 + 2r + 3r^2 + \dots, so the correct sum is 1(1r)2\frac{1}{(1-r)^2}.

  • Forgetting that the probability for the process to stop on the kk-th toss includes both repeated failures and then one success leads to an incomplete expectation. The correct term is k(1n)k1n1nk\left(\frac{1}{n}\right)^{k-1}\frac{n-1}{n}.

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