Bag A contains white and black balls, while bag B contains white and black balls. One ball is picked from B and put in A. Then a ball is drawn from A. Probability it is white is . Find .
- A
- B
- C
- D
Bag A contains white and black balls, while bag B contains white and black balls. One ball is picked from B and put in A. Then a ball is drawn from A. Probability it is white is . Find .
Correct answer:A
Standard Method
Given: Bag A contains white and black balls, and bag B contains white and black balls. One ball is transferred from B to A, then one ball is drawn from A.
Find: The value of if the probability of drawing a white ball from A is .
Use the total probability theorem.
Probability of transferring white from B:
Probability of transferring black from B:
If a white ball is transferred, bag A becomes , so
If a black ball is transferred, bag A becomes , so
Therefore,
Substituting,
So and . Hence,
Therefore, the correct option is A.
Students may directly use the original composition of bag A and take the probability as . This is wrong because one transfer happens before the draw. First update bag A based on the transferred ball, then compute the final probability.
Students may forget to use conditional probability and average the cases incorrectly. The two transfer cases are not equally likely. Use weighted probabilities: multiply each conditional probability by the probability of that transfer case.
Students may make the denominator of bag A after transfer as instead of . This is wrong because one extra ball is added to bag A before drawing. After transfer, bag A always contains balls.
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