Let the mean and variance of observations , where , be and respectively. Two numbers are chosen from one after another without replacement, then the probability, that the smaller number among the two chosen numbers is less than , is:
- A
- B
- C
- D
Let the mean and variance of observations , where , be and respectively. Two numbers are chosen from one after another without replacement, then the probability, that the smaller number among the two chosen numbers is less than , is:
Correct answer:A
Standard Method
Given: The mean and variance of the observations are and respectively, with .
Find: The probability that when two numbers are chosen without replacement from , the smaller number is less than .
Using the mean,
So,
Hence,
Using the variance formula,
Therefore,
So,
Now solve the system
Put in the second equation:
So or . Since , we get
Now the set becomes
Two numbers are chosen one after another without replacement.
Total ordered outcomes:
Let be the event that the smaller of the two chosen numbers is less than .
Use the complement. Let be the event that the smaller number is at least . Then both chosen numbers must come from .
Number of ordered outcomes in :
Hence,
Therefore,
Therefore, the required probability is . The correct option is A.
Complementary Counting
Given: The unknown values and are determined from the mean and variance, and then probability is to be found from the resulting set.
Find: The probability that the smaller of two chosen numbers is less than .
First determine and from
and
The valid pair satisfying is
So the set is
Instead of counting directly when the smaller number is less than , count when this does not happen.
If the smaller chosen number is not less than , then both selected numbers must be among
Since selection is without replacement and in order, the number of such outcomes is
while total ordered outcomes are
Thus,
Hence,
Therefore, the correct option is A.
A common mistake is to stop after finding and guess values of and . This is wrong because the variance condition is also required. Use both the mean and variance equations before forming the probability set.
Students often ignore the condition and take . This reverses the values and gives the wrong transformed set. After solving the quadratic, always apply the given inequality.
Another mistake is to count unordered pairs as even though the question says the numbers are chosen one after another without replacement. The solution counts ordered outcomes, so use consistently for the sample space.
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