MCQMediumJEE 2025Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

JEE Mathematics 2025 Question with Solution

If AA and BB are two events such that P(A)=0.7P(A) = 0.7, P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4 and P(AB)=0.5P\left( A \cap \overline{B} \right) = 0.5, where B\overline{B} denotes the complement of BB, then P(B(AB))P\left( B \mid \left( A \cup \overline{B} \right) \right) is equal to

  • A

    12\frac{1}{2}

  • B

    14\frac{1}{4}

  • C

    13\frac{1}{3}

  • D

    16\frac{1}{6}

Answer

Correct answer:B

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: P(A)=0.7P(A) = 0.7, P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4 and P(AB)=0.5P(A \cap \overline{B}) = 0.5.

Find: P(B(AB))P\left(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B})\right).

Use conditional probability:

P(B(AB))=P(B(AB))P(AB)P\left(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B})\right) = \frac{P\left(B \cap (A \cup \overline{B})\right)}{P(A \cup \overline{B})}

First, find P(AB)P(A \cap B) using

P(AB)=P(A)P(AB)P(A \cap \overline{B}) = P(A) - P(A \cap B)

So,

0.5=0.7P(AB)0.5 = 0.7 - P(A \cap B) P(AB)=0.2P(A \cap B) = 0.2

Now,

P(B)=1P(B)=10.4=0.6P(\overline{B}) = 1 - P(B) = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6

Then,

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup \overline{B}) = P(A) + P(\overline{B}) - P(A \cap \overline{B}) =0.7+0.60.5=0.8= 0.7 + 0.6 - 0.5 = 0.8

Also,

B(AB)=(BA)(BB)B \cap (A \cup \overline{B}) = (B \cap A) \cup (B \cap \overline{B})

Since BB=B \cap \overline{B} = \emptyset,

P(B(AB))=P(AB)=0.2P\left(B \cap (A \cup \overline{B})\right) = P(A \cap B) = 0.2

Therefore,

P(B(AB))=0.20.8=14P\left(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B})\right) = \frac{0.2}{0.8} = \frac{1}{4}

Therefore, the correct option is B.

Stepwise Set-Based Evaluation

Given: P(A)=0.7P(A) = 0.7, P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4 and P(AB)=0.5P(A \cap \overline{B}) = 0.5.

Find: P(B(AB))P\left(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B})\right).

From

P(AB)=P(A)P(AB)P(A \cap \overline{B}) = P(A) - P(A \cap B)

we get

0.5=0.7P(AB)0.5 = 0.7 - P(A \cap B) P(AB)=0.2P(A \cap B) = 0.2

Next,

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup \overline{B}) = P(A) + P(\overline{B}) - P(A \cap \overline{B})

with

P(B)=10.4=0.6P(\overline{B}) = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6

Hence,

P(AB)=0.7+0.60.5=0.8P(A \cup \overline{B}) = 0.7 + 0.6 - 0.5 = 0.8

Now evaluate the numerator:

P(B(AB))=P((BA)(BB))P(B \cap (A \cup \overline{B})) = P((B \cap A) \cup (B \cap \overline{B})) =P(AB)+P()=0.2+0=0.2= P(A \cap B) + P(\emptyset) = 0.2 + 0 = 0.2

Finally,

P(B(AB))=P(B(AB))P(AB)=0.20.8=14P\left(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B})\right) = \frac{P(B \cap (A \cup \overline{B}))}{P(A \cup \overline{B})} = \frac{0.2}{0.8} = \frac{1}{4}

Thus, the required probability is 14\frac{1}{4}, so the correct option is B.

Common mistakes

  • Using P(AB)P(A \cap \overline{B}) as P(AB)P(A \cap B) is incorrect because these are different regions of the Venn diagram. Instead, use P(AB)=P(A)P(AB)P(A \cap \overline{B}) = P(A) - P(A \cap B) to find P(AB)P(A \cap B) first.

  • Writing the denominator as P(AB)P(A \cup B) instead of P(AB)P(A \cup \overline{B}) changes the event completely. The conditioning event must be copied exactly before applying the conditional probability formula.

  • Assuming B(AB)=BB \cap (A \cup \overline{B}) = B is wrong because only the part of BB lying inside ABA \cup \overline{B} is counted. Use set distribution: B(AB)=(BA)(BB)B \cap (A \cup \overline{B}) = (B \cap A) \cup (B \cap \overline{B}), and then note that BB=B \cap \overline{B} = \emptyset.

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