MCQMediumJEE 2025Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

JEE Mathematics 2025 Question with Solution

A bag contains 1919 unbiased coins and one coin with heads on both sides. One coin is drawn at random and tossed, and heads turns up. If the probability that the drawn coin was unbiased is mn\frac{m}{n}, where gcd(m,n)=1\gcd(m, n) = 1, then n2m2n^2 - m^2 is equal to:

  • A

    8080

  • B

    6060

  • C

    7272

  • D

    6464

Answer

Correct answer:A

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: A bag contains 1919 unbiased coins and 11 coin with heads on both sides. A coin is drawn and tossed, and heads turns up.

Find: If P(UnbiasedHeads)=mnP(\text{Unbiased} \mid \text{Heads}) = \frac{m}{n} with gcd(m,n)=1\gcd(m,n)=1, find n2m2n^2-m^2.

Let AA be the event that the drawn coin is unbiased and BB be the event that heads turns up.

Then

P(A)=1920,P(Ac)=120P(A)=\frac{19}{20}, \qquad P(A^c)=\frac{1}{20}

and

P(BA)=12,P(BAc)=1P(B\mid A)=\frac{1}{2}, \qquad P(B\mid A^c)=1

Using total probability,

P(B)=P(BA)P(A)+P(BAc)P(Ac)P(B)=P(B\mid A)P(A)+P(B\mid A^c)P(A^c) P(B)=(12)(1920)+1(120)P(B)=\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)\left(\frac{19}{20}\right)+1\left(\frac{1}{20}\right) P(B)=1940+120=1940+240=2140P(B)=\frac{19}{40}+\frac{1}{20}=\frac{19}{40}+\frac{2}{40}=\frac{21}{40}

Now by Bayes' theorem,

P(AB)=P(BA)P(A)P(B)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(B\mid A)P(A)}{P(B)} P(AB)=(12)(1920)2140=19402140=1921P(A\mid B)=\frac{\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)\left(\frac{19}{20}\right)}{\frac{21}{40}}=\frac{\frac{19}{40}}{\frac{21}{40}}=\frac{19}{21}

So, m=19m=19 and n=21n=21.

Therefore,

n2m2=212192=(21+19)(2119)=40×2=80n^2-m^2=21^2-19^2=(21+19)(21-19)=40\times 2=80

Hence, the correct option is A.

Bayes' Theorem Step-by-Step

Given: There are 2020 coins in total: 1919 unbiased coins and 11 two-headed coin.

Find: The value of n2m2n^2-m^2 when the probability that the chosen coin was unbiased, given that heads appeared, is mn\frac{m}{n}.

This is a conditional probability problem, so Bayes' theorem applies.

  1. Define events:
  • AA: the drawn coin is unbiased
  • BB: heads turns up
  1. Compute the basic probabilities:
P(A)=1920,P(Ac)=120P(A)=\frac{19}{20}, \qquad P(A^c)=\frac{1}{20} P(BA)=12,P(BAc)=1P(B\mid A)=\frac{1}{2}, \qquad P(B\mid A^c)=1
  1. Find the probability of getting heads:
P(B)=P(BA)P(A)+P(BAc)P(Ac)P(B)=P(B\mid A)P(A)+P(B\mid A^c)P(A^c) P(B)=121920+1120P(B)=\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{19}{20}+1\cdot\frac{1}{20} P(B)=1940+120=2140P(B)=\frac{19}{40}+\frac{1}{20}=\frac{21}{40}
  1. Apply Bayes' theorem:
P(AB)=P(BA)P(A)P(B)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(B\mid A)P(A)}{P(B)} P(AB)=1219202140=1921P(A\mid B)=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{19}{20}}{\frac{21}{40}}=\frac{19}{21}

Thus, mn=1921\frac{m}{n}=\frac{19}{21}, so m=19m=19 and n=21n=21.

  1. Evaluate the required expression:
212192=(21+19)(2119)=402=8021^2-19^2=(21+19)(21-19)=40\cdot 2=80

Therefore, the answer is 8080, so the correct option is A.

Common mistakes

  • Using 1920\frac{19}{20} directly as the required probability. This is wrong because the question asks for the probability after heads has appeared. Use conditional probability, specifically Bayes' theorem, instead.

  • Taking the probability of heads as only 12\frac{1}{2}. This ignores the two-headed coin, which always gives heads. Compute P(Heads)P(\text{Heads}) using total probability from both types of coins.

  • Writing P(HeadsTwo-headed)=12P(\text{Heads} \mid \text{Two-headed})=\frac{1}{2}. This is incorrect because a coin with heads on both sides gives heads with probability 11. Treat the biased coin separately.

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