A bag contains unbiased coins and one coin with heads on both sides. One coin is drawn at random and tossed, and heads turns up. If the probability that the drawn coin was unbiased is , where , then is equal to:
- A
- B
- C
- D
A bag contains unbiased coins and one coin with heads on both sides. One coin is drawn at random and tossed, and heads turns up. If the probability that the drawn coin was unbiased is , where , then is equal to:
Correct answer:A
Standard Method
Given: A bag contains unbiased coins and coin with heads on both sides. A coin is drawn and tossed, and heads turns up.
Find: If with , find .
Let be the event that the drawn coin is unbiased and be the event that heads turns up.
Then
and
Using total probability,
Now by Bayes' theorem,
So, and .
Therefore,
Hence, the correct option is A.
Bayes' Theorem Step-by-Step
Given: There are coins in total: unbiased coins and two-headed coin.
Find: The value of when the probability that the chosen coin was unbiased, given that heads appeared, is .
This is a conditional probability problem, so Bayes' theorem applies.
Thus, , so and .
Therefore, the answer is , so the correct option is A.
Using directly as the required probability. This is wrong because the question asks for the probability after heads has appeared. Use conditional probability, specifically Bayes' theorem, instead.
Taking the probability of heads as only . This ignores the two-headed coin, which always gives heads. Compute using total probability from both types of coins.
Writing . This is incorrect because a coin with heads on both sides gives heads with probability . Treat the biased coin separately.
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