MCQMediumJEE 2025Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

JEE Mathematics 2025 Question with Solution

Two balls are selected at random one by one without replacement from a bag containing 44 white and 66 black balls. If the probability that the first selected ball is black, given that the second selected ball is also black, is mn\frac{m}{n}, where gcd(m,n)=1\gcd(m, n) = 1, then m+nm + n is equal to:

  • A

    1414

  • B

    44

  • C

    1111

  • D

    1313

Answer

Correct answer:A

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: A bag contains 44 white balls and 66 black balls. Two balls are selected one by one without replacement.

Find: P(first ball is blacksecond ball is black)=mnP(\text{first ball is black} \mid \text{second ball is black}) = \frac{m}{n} and then find m+nm+n.

Let AA be the event that the first ball is black and BB be the event that the second ball is black. Using conditional probability,

P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}

Step 1: Find P(AB)P(A \cap B).

P(AB)=610×59=3090=13P(A\cap B)=\frac{6}{10}\times\frac{5}{9}=\frac{30}{90}=\frac{1}{3}

Step 2: Find P(B)P(B). The second ball is black in two cases:

P(B)=(610×59)+(410×69)=3090+2490=5490=35P(B)=\left(\frac{6}{10}\times\frac{5}{9}\right)+\left(\frac{4}{10}\times\frac{6}{9}\right)=\frac{30}{90}+\frac{24}{90}=\frac{54}{90}=\frac{3}{5}

Step 3: Compute the conditional probability.

P(AB)=1335=13×53=59P(A\mid B)=\frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{3}{5}}=\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{5}{3}=\frac{5}{9}

So, m=5m=5 and n=9n=9 with gcd(5,9)=1\gcd(5,9)=1.

Therefore, m+n=5+9=14m+n=5+9=14. The correct option is A.

Event-Based Breakdown

Given: B1B_1 is the event that the first ball is black and B2B_2 is the event that the second ball is black.

Find: P(B1B2)P(B_1\mid B_2).

Using the formula,

P(B1B2)=P(B1B2)P(B2)P(B_1\mid B_2)=\frac{P(B_1\cap B_2)}{P(B_2)}

First, probability that both balls are black:

P(B1B2)=610×59=13P(B_1\cap B_2)=\frac{6}{10}\times\frac{5}{9}=\frac{1}{3}

Now find P(B2)P(B_2) by splitting into two cases:

  1. First black, second black
610×59=3090\frac{6}{10}\times\frac{5}{9}=\frac{30}{90}
  1. First white, second black
410×69=2490\frac{4}{10}\times\frac{6}{9}=\frac{24}{90}

Hence,

P(B2)=3090+2490=5490=35P(B_2)=\frac{30}{90}+\frac{24}{90}=\frac{54}{90}=\frac{3}{5}

Finally,

P(B1B2)=1335=59P(B_1\mid B_2)=\frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{3}{5}}=\frac{5}{9}

Thus, mn=59\frac{m}{n}=\frac{5}{9} and so m+n=14m+n=14.

Common mistakes

  • Using P(AB)=P(BA)P(A)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(B\mid A)}{P(A)} or confusing conditional probability with simple probability is incorrect. Conditional probability requires dividing the intersection by the given event: use P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}.

  • Taking P(B)P(B) as 610\frac{6}{10} is wrong because BB refers to the second ball being black, not the first. Compute it by considering both possibilities for the first draw.

  • Ignoring the phrase 'without replacement' leads to using the same denominator on both draws. After one ball is drawn, the total number of balls becomes 99, so the second-draw probabilities must use denominator 99.

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