MCQMediumJEE 2023Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

JEE Mathematics 2023 Question with Solution

A bag contains 66 balls. Two balls are drawn from it at random and both are found to be black. The probability that the bag contains at least 55 black balls is:

  • A

    57\frac{5}{7}

  • B

    27\frac{2}{7}

  • C

    37\frac{3}{7}

  • D

    56\frac{5}{6}

Answer

Correct answer:A

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: A bag contains 66 balls. Two drawn balls are found to be black.

Find: The probability that the bag contains at least 55 black balls.

From the extracted working, consider possible numbers of black balls in the bag as 2,3,4,5,62,3,4,5,6. The event “at least 55 black balls” corresponds to 55 or 66 black balls.

Using the combination count shown in the solution:

5C2+6C22C2+3C2+4C2+5C2+6C2\frac{{}^5C_2+{}^6C_2}{{}^2C_2+{}^3C_2+{}^4C_2+{}^5C_2+{}^6C_2}

Substitute the values:

10+151+3+6+10+15\frac{10+15}{1+3+6+10+15}

So,

2535\frac{25}{35}

Hence,

57\frac{5}{7}

Therefore, the probability that the bag contains at least 55 black balls is 57\frac{5}{7}. The listed the solution marks option C, but the worked value is 57\frac{5}{7}, which matches option A.

Using the extracted case-counting approach

Given: Two balls drawn from the bag are black.

Find: Probability that the bag had at least 55 black balls.

The provided solution counts the admissible black-ball cases by the number of ways to choose 22 black balls from a bag having kk black balls, for k=2,3,4,5,6k=2,3,4,5,6.

For the favorable cases:

  • If the bag has 55 black balls, the count is 5C2=10{}^5C_2=10.
  • If the bag has 66 black balls, the count is 6C2=15{}^6C_2=15.

Thus favorable total:

10+15=2510+15=25

For all considered cases:

2C2+3C2+4C2+5C2+6C2{}^2C_2+{}^3C_2+{}^4C_2+{}^5C_2+{}^6C_2

That is,

1+3+6+10+15=351+3+6+10+15=35

Therefore,

P(at least 5 black balls)=2535=57P(\text{at least }5\text{ black balls})=\frac{25}{35}=\frac{5}{7}

So the correct numerical value is 57\frac{5}{7}, and the corresponding correct option is A.

Common mistakes

  • Assuming the marked option letter on the page is automatically correct. Here the page says option C, but the worked result is 57\frac{5}{7}, which matches option A. Always trust the actual computation.

  • Counting only the cases with 55 black balls and forgetting the 66 black balls case. “At least 55” includes both 55 and 66.

  • Using the denominator incorrectly by omitting one of the shown admissible cases 2,3,4,5,62,3,4,5,6 black balls. The denominator must include all cases counted in the provided method.

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