NVAMediumJEE 2023Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

JEE Mathematics 2023 Question with Solution

The urns AA, BB, and CC contain 44 red, 66 black; 55 red, 55 black, and λ\lambda red; 44 black balls respectively. One of the urns is selected at random, and a ball is drawn. If the ball drawn is red and the probability that it is drawn from urn CC is 0.40.4, then the square of the length of the side of the largest equilateral triangle, inscribed in the parabola y2=λxy^2 = \lambda x with one vertex at the vertex of the parabola, is:

Answer

Correct answer:432

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: The urns A,B,CA, B, C are chosen with equal probability. Urn AA has 44 red and 66 black balls, urn BB has 55 red and 55 black balls, and urn CC has λ\lambda red and 44 black balls. Also, P(CRed)=0.4P(C\mid \text{Red}) = 0.4.

Find: The square of the side length of the largest equilateral triangle inscribed in y2=λxy^2 = \lambda x with one vertex at the vertex of the parabola.

Three urns labeled A, B and C showing counts of red and black balls: A has 4 red 6 black, B has 5 red 5 black, C has lambda red 4 black.

Using Bayes' theorem,

P(CR)=P(C)P(RC)P(A)P(RA)+P(B)P(RB)+P(C)P(RC)P(C\mid R) = \frac{P(C)P(R\mid C)}{P(A)P(R\mid A) + P(B)P(R\mid B) + P(C)P(R\mid C)}

Since each urn is selected at random,

P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=13P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=\frac{1}{3}

Also,

P(RA)=410,P(RB)=510,P(RC)=λλ+4P(R\mid A)=\frac{4}{10}, \qquad P(R\mid B)=\frac{5}{10}, \qquad P(R\mid C)=\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}

Therefore,

0.4=13λλ+413410+13510+13λλ+40.4 = \frac{\frac{1}{3}\cdot \frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}}{\frac{1}{3}\cdot \frac{4}{10} + \frac{1}{3}\cdot \frac{5}{10} + \frac{1}{3}\cdot \frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}}

From the given working,

λ=6\lambda = 6
Parabola y squared equals 6x with vertex at origin and an inscribed equilateral triangle symmetric about x-axis, vertices marked at origin and points labeled three by two t squared comma plus minus 3t.

Now consider the parabola y2=6xy^2 = 6x.

For the largest equilateral triangle, the upper vertex is taken as

(32t2,3t)\left(\frac{3}{2}t^2, 3t\right)

Using the condition shown in the solution,

tan30=3t32t2=23t\tan 30^\circ = \frac{3t}{\frac{3}{2}t^2} = \frac{2}{3t}

So,

13=23t\frac{1}{\sqrt{3}} = \frac{2}{3t}

which gives

t=23t = 2\sqrt{3}

Hence the point becomes

(32t2,3t)=(18,63)\left(\frac{3}{2}t^2, 3t\right) = \left(18, 6\sqrt{3}\right)

Therefore, the square of the side length is

2=182+(63)2\ell^2 = 18^2 + \left(6\sqrt{3}\right)^2 =324+108= 324 + 108 =432= 432

Therefore, the required square of the side length is 432432.

Solution Using Extracted Steps

Given: P(CRed)=0.4P(C\mid \text{Red}) = 0.4 and the parabola is y2=λxy^2 = \lambda x.

Find: 2\ell^2 for the largest inscribed equilateral triangle.

The extracted solution states the final answer as 432432 and shows the intermediate result

λ=6\lambda = 6

Then the parabola becomes

y2=6xy^2 = 6x

The triangle vertices used are the origin and the symmetric points

(32t2,3t),(32t2,3t)\left(\frac{3}{2}t^2, 3t\right), \quad \left(\frac{3}{2}t^2, -3t\right)

From the angle condition,

tan30=23t\tan 30^\circ = \frac{2}{3t}

Thus,

t=23t = 2\sqrt{3}

Substituting,

(32t2,3t)=(18,63)\left(\frac{3}{2}t^2, 3t\right) = \left(18, 6\sqrt{3}\right)

Now the side squared is computed as

2=182+(63)2=324+108=432\ell^2 = 18^2 + \left(6\sqrt{3}\right)^2 = 324 + 108 = 432

So the required answer is 432432.

Note: Another textual approach in the solution mentions a different value of λ\lambda, but it conflicts with the extracted worked solution and the displayed final answer. As instructed, the solution's worked conclusion is treated as the authority.

Common mistakes

  • Using Bayes' theorem incorrectly by writing P(RC)P(R\mid C) in place of P(CR)P(C\mid R) or forgetting to divide by total probability of drawing a red ball. Always write the full conditional probability expression before substituting values.

  • Taking the parabola parameter point incorrectly. For y2=4axy^2 = 4ax, the standard parametric point is (at2,2at)\left(at^2, 2at\right). Here y2=6xy^2 = 6x gives a=32a = \frac{3}{2}, so the point becomes (32t2,3t)\left(\frac{3}{2}t^2, 3t\right).

  • Computing the side length instead of its square. The question asks for 2\ell^2, so after finding the coordinates, use the distance formula directly in squared form to avoid unnecessary square roots.

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