MCQMediumJEE 2025Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

JEE Mathematics 2025 Question with Solution

A card from a pack of 5252 cards is lost. From the remaining 5151 cards, nn cards are drawn and are found to be spades. If the probability of the lost card to be a spade is 1150\frac{11}{50}, then nn is equal to _____

  • A

    11

  • B

    22

  • C

    33

  • D

    44

Answer

Correct answer:B

Step-by-step solution

Standard Method

Given: A pack has 5252 cards with 1313 spades. One card is lost. From the remaining cards, nn cards are drawn and all are found to be spades.

Find: The value of nn if the probability that the lost card is a spade is 1150\frac{11}{50}.

If nn drawn cards are all spades, then the remaining number of spades is 13n13-n and the remaining total number of cards is 52n52-n.

Therefore,

P(lost card is spade)=(13n1)(52n1)=1150P(\text{lost card is spade})=\frac{\binom{13-n}{1}}{\binom{52-n}{1}}=\frac{11}{50}

Since (a1)=a\binom{a}{1}=a, this becomes

13n52n=1150\frac{13-n}{52-n}=\frac{11}{50}

Cross-multiplying,

50(13n)=11(52n)50(13-n)=11(52-n) 65050n=57211n650-50n=572-11n 78=39n78=39n n=2n=2

Therefore, the value of nn is 22. The correct option is B.

Equation Simplification

Given: After nn cards are drawn and all are spades, the unseen cards contain 13n13-n spades out of 52n52-n total cards.

Find: nn.

The probability that the lost card is a spade is the fraction of spades among the unseen cards:

13n52n=1150\frac{13-n}{52-n}=\frac{11}{50}

Now solve step by step:

50(13n)=11(52n)50(13-n)=11(52-n) 65050n=57211n650-50n=572-11n 650572=50n11n650-572=50n-11n 78=39n78=39n n=2n=2

Hence, n=2n=2.

Common mistakes

  • Taking the number of remaining spades as 13x13-x and then treating xx differently from nn is inconsistent here, because the question says all drawn cards are spades. Therefore, the number of spades drawn is exactly nn. Use 13n13-n and 52n52-n.

  • Using 5151 in the denominator of the probability is incorrect, because after observing nn spades among drawn cards, the relevant unseen set has 52n52-n cards. The probability of the lost card being a spade must be formed from the remaining unseen cards.

  • Not simplifying (13n1)\binom{13-n}{1} and (52n1)\binom{52-n}{1} can make the expression look harder than it is. Since (a1)=a\binom{a}{1}=a, reduce the combinations first and then solve the linear equation.

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